Tuesday, May 31, 2016

The Limits of Oil’s Rebound

Anatole Kaletsky (May 30, 2016) - [...] "From now on, the costs faced by these marginal producers will set the top and bottom of oil’s trading range. Low-cost producers in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Russia will continue to pump as much as their physical infrastructure can transport as long as the price is higher than $25 or so. The price needed to elicit enough production from US shale and Canadian tar sands to meet strong demand may be $50, $55, or even $60, but it is unlikely to be much higher than that.

Unpredictable shifts in supply and demand will, of course, cause fluctuations within this trading range, which past experience suggests could be quite large. In the 20-year period of competitive pricing from 1985 to 2004, the oil price frequently doubled or halved in the course of a few months. So the near-doubling of oil prices since mid-January’s $28 low is not surprising. But now that the $50 ceiling is being tested, we can expect the next major move in the trading range to be downward." 

Crude oil increased 0.62 USD/BBL or 1.26% to 49.98 on Tuesday May 31 from 49.36 in the previous trading session.
Crude oil lost 10.26 USD/BBL or 17.03 % during the last 12 months from 60.24 USD/BBL in May of 2015.
Historically, Crude oil reached an all time high of 145.31 in July of 2008 and a record low of 1.17 in February of 1946.
Bull Markets in Oil tend to be short, whereas Bear Markets last 11 to 28 Years. So far we are in the 8th year

SPX | Narrowest 2 Year Percent Range of Monthly Closes

Credits: Nautilus Research

Tom McClellan: "Such low volume episodes are typically followed by uptrends. Exceptions noted."
Tom McClellan

Gold vs MER in SAG + GEM | MER @ MIN/MAX SUN | MOO 000° MAR

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution.

Monday, May 30, 2016

Gold vs Pluto Retrograde | Sun 000° + 180° Pluto

Martin Armstrong (May 31, 2016): "All the big manipulations have ALWAYS been to the UPSIDE, not to the downside. It is absurd to
pretend that gold is suppressed perpetually so they can make money in some strange way."
and charted with
Timing Solution

Sunday, May 29, 2016

EU Passed Tax ID Numbers for Everyone

Unelected, anti-democratic, and corrupt.
Martin Armstrong (May 29, 2016) - The EU is laying the groundwork for everyone in Europe to be given a new tax ID number in preparation for moving to electronic money. They are using a National Insurance number pretense to disguise the real objective. This scheme was passed by the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee last week. This is another step in the federalization of Europe and even the British will have to comply. Naturally, nobody will report this in Britain because it obviously calls for a European Taxpayer Identification Number to keep track of every EU citizen, which include the British. The actual European Commission text reads:

Proper identification of taxpayers is essential to effective exchange of information between tax administrations. The creation of European Taxpayer Identification Number (EU TIN) would provide the best means for this identification. It would allow any third party to quickly, easily and correctly identify and record TINs in cross-border relations and serve as a basis for effective automatic exchange of information between member states tax administrations.

BREXIT - The Movie (HERE)
This covert maneuver calls for the EU to take over member states’ corporate taxation powers with a common corporation tax base for Europe as a whole. The British corporations are suddenly going to taste the bitter bite of Europeans socialism and watch their taxes sky-rocket. That should help increase unemployment in Britain at a far faster pace than expected. This new legislation is banning sovereign member states from increasing their competitiveness by cutting corporation tax below 15%. Brussels is eliminating independence within Europe on taxes and this enables Brussels to be handed the ability to track every EU taxpayer, laying the foundations for a new European tax and to prevent competitive taxation to lure in companies from other members to help reduce local unemployment.

Friday, May 27, 2016

SPX vs True Node Speed = Mean Node Speed + Extremes | June 2016

SPX vs Jupiter – Saturn Cycle | June 2016

SPX vs Mercury – Venus Cycle | June 2016

SPX vs Mercury Speed | June 2016

SPX vs Lunar Declination Acceleration Cycle | June 2016

SPX vs Lunar Orbital Speed | June 2016

SoLunar Map | June - July 2016

Upcoming turn-days are: May 28 (Sat), Jun 01 (Wed), Jun 05 (Sun), Jun 09 (Thu), Jun 12 (Sun), Jun 16 (Thu), Jun 20 (Mon),
Jun 23 (Thu), Jun 27 (Mon), Jun 30 (Thu), Jul 04 (Mon), Jul 08 (Fri), Jul 12 (Tue), Jul 15 (Fri), Jul 19 (Tue), Jul 23 (Sat),
Jul 27 (Wed), Jul 30 (Sat), Aug 03 (Wed).
Previous SoLunar Maps HERE

Cosmic Cluster Days | June - July 2016

The basic assumption here is that heliocentric and geocentric angles between planets are related to financial market movements.
A signal is triggered when the composite line of all aspects breaks above or below the Average Cosmic Noise Channel.
Upcoming Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) are: May 29 (Sun), Jun 10 (Fri), Jun 13 (Mon), Jun 14 (Tue), Jun 24 (Fri), Jun 26 (Sun), Jul 06 (Wed),
Jul 09 (Sat), Jul 11 (Mon), Jul 14 (Thu), Jul 22 (Fri), Jul 23 (Sat), Jul 26 (Tue), Jul 27 (Wed), Jul 29 (Fri), Aug 01 (Mon).

Monday, May 23, 2016

The 162 Year Cycle | Stocks and Commodities since 1555

Stock Prices 1509 to date | Enlarge
Ahmed Farghaly (May 18, 2016): "[...] The chart starts at the millennial low in 1555 and what followed is an absolute beauty. The way I first discovered the 162 year cycle was through drawing a trendline between two consecutive lows of the 54 year cycle. The lows I chose were that of 1842 and 1896. A break of such a trendline would suggest that a larger cycle has turned and indeed the trendline was broken in the 1929-1932 crash. This gave me a hint of the presence of a 162 year cycle. I assumed it was a 162 year cycle since the first 54 year cycle chosen to draw the trendline was a rally off of a bear market that lasted 64 years hence It was the ideal starting point. I then confirmed my hypothesis by looking at wheat prices and eventually commodity prices which made me conclude that the 162 year cycle's presence is no longer a hypothesis, it is a fact. The combined chart that [at left] is further evidence to its presence. Notice how nicely the first 324 year cycle subdivided into two 162 year cycles. The 162 year cycle trough was precisely in the middle of this 324 year cycle. If you look deeper into the picture you will notice that both 162 year cycles subdivided into three 54 year cycles supporting our conclusion that the Kondratieff wave is the third harmonic of the 162 year cycle. After the trough in 1784, we had three 54 year cycles that ended with the crash of the late 1920s which marked a trough of the 162 year cycle. What followed was the greatest bull market in modern history and it is unfortunate that we are close to its terminus. The peak of the last 324 year cycle occurred in the third 18 year cycle of the second 54 year cycle of the second 162 year cycle which is a position that we are in today. The likelihood of further translation than the previous 324 year cycle is slim considering that the force of the 972 year cycle has leveled out since the 1930s. 

The Elliott Wave structure is certainly interesting as well, what jumps out of the chart is the fact that we had a fifth wave extension in terms of the entire advance since 1784. What is even more interesting is the fact that the move from 1932 also sported a fifth wave extension. There is a very strong guideline in the wave principle that states that fifth wave extensions are typically followed by crashes. If one wants to search for examples commodities are a great place to start. The reason why commodities have dramatic crashes is because they follow a fifth wave extension. The guideline suggests that we can expect the decline to make it to the wave two of the fifth wave extension which would be below 1,000 on the DJIA. The fact that the 324 year cycle correction is due at this current point in time certainly supports this conclusion. Here is an example of a crash following a fifth wave extension [...]" More HERE + HERE