Crude Oil's 10-Year Leading Indication for US Stock Market | Tom McClellan

One of the big picture forecasting tools is crude oil prices as a leading indication for the overall stock market. The first chart shows crude oil prices back to 1890 compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average plotted on logarithmic scales. The price of crude oil is shifted forward by 10 years. The correlation isn't always perfect, but generally speaking, when there is a rise in crude oil prices, 10 years later, there is a rise in the stock market. When crude oil prices go flat, the stock market goes flat. 

We are not yet quite at that 10 year echo point in stocks, which would equate to June of 2024, 10 years after crude oil peaked. That means the next few years are not going to be so great, especially between now and early 2026. Early 2026 will be a great time for investors to ride the stock market long all the way to 2028. 

 

Quoted from:
Tom McClellan (Mar 28, 2024) - 'Unpleasant Time' Ahead For Stock Market. (video)

 

 

2024 S&P 500 Election Year Seasonal Pattern │ Jeff Hirsch

 2024 is an Election Year and the sitting President is running for office again. 

In this constellation the S&P 500 typically tends to (1.) trend higher from early January into mid February;  

(2.) decline into late March; (3.) rise up for the rest of the year, especially after elections.

Also take note of Larry Williams' re-election pattern.

 

The S&P 500's average annual return during Election Years is 11.6%. Since 1833 the fourth year in the Decennial Pattern has been up 13 vs 6 times down with an average annual return of 5.22%. Over the past 30 years, January gains have occurred 17 times (57%), while losses numbered 13 (43%), barely better than the flip of a coin. In bull markets, New Moons are bottoms, and Full Moons are tops. In bear markets, New Moons are tops, and Full Moons are bottoms. More often than not, stocks will rise from around the 7th to around the 14th calendar day of a month, fall from the 14th to the 20th, and rise from the 20th to the 25th.

 

In 1967 Yale Hirsch published the first Stock Trader’s Almanac and presented the Four Year Presidential Election Cycle as an significant and predictive indicator of stock market performance. The outcomes are relatively steady, regardless of the president’s political leanings in office at the time, and the year after each presidential election marks the start of a new four-year stock market cycle. Considering annual returns of each year in the four year cycle, the Pre-Election Year (2023) is considered best, and  the Election Year second. The most predictive period of the year is November 19th to January 19th. Wayne Whaley coined it a 'Turn of the Year (TOY) Barometer'. If the return of this 2-month period is greater than 3%, a bullish signal is given, and the market is very likely to do well over the following 12 months. If the return is 0-3%, the signal is considered neutral; and if the return is negative, the signal is bearish, and returns very poor. Currently the S&P 500 still trades some 6% above the November 19 level.

 

The 250 year US empire live cycle concluded in 2023. Demise by folly overstretch. Uni-polar global supremacy is over, and Russia, China and Iran stronger than ever. A multi-polar world of worlds now knows how to deal with a paper-tiger gone mad. All star-spangled striped monsters check-mated, defeated and unveiled 24/7 along the many battle fronts on the globe. Project Ukraine lost. Now supervising genocide in Palestine. Yemen's Ansar Allah controls the Bab al-Mandab and launches full front attacks against the hegemon. An emerging Muslim alliance will liberate the Holy Land. Iran may shut down the Gibraltar strait any moment. The Taliban will enter Jerusalem and flatten Tel Aviv. Zionist Saudis and emirs doomed. Revolutionary Shia will root them out. The fever pitch increases. As some discard all this as hysteria and Islamist war propaganda, the dollar hegemony is rapidly melting away under the world island's rising sun. 2024 will be a remarkable 'election year'. W.D. Gann projected 'major panic, breadlines, soup kitchens, despair, and unemployment' into the US of 2024. And US astrologer L. David Linsky sees the home-front ready for more mayhem, upheaval, war and regime change. Plenty of opportunities along the lines and times in the above seasonal roadmap for 2024.

 

 

The Kitchin Cycle and the Benner Cycle are bullish for all of 2024 and 2025 (historically the fifth year outperforming all other years in the decennial pattern). In the current decennial cycle Larry Williams identified June 2024 as "the sweet spot with 90% accuracy" to buy stocks until December 2025.

 

 

 

 

 

In January 2024 the Sensitive Degrees of the Sun are:

Jan 02 (Tue) = Earth at perihelion = positive = high
Jan 06 (Sat) = negative = low
Jan 19 (Fri) = negative = low
Jan 30 (Tue) = positive = high

The Turning points in the Geocentric Bradley Barometer are (+/-1 CD):

Jan 04 (Thu) = Low
Jan 13 (Sat) = High
Jan 22 (Mon) = Low
Jan 29 (Mon) = High

The SoLunar Rhythm during January 2024: 

 

Additional References:
Seth Golden (Dec 26, 2023) @ X

Dimensional (2023) - Market Returns During Election Years.

IsabelNet (Dec 12, 2023) - S&P 500 Day of Month Seasonality Returns 1928 to present.

 

 Last time the S&P 500 was up 9 consecutive weeks was in 2004 and before that two 9-week win streaks in 1989 and in 1994,

before that a 12-week win streak in 1985. The next years' returns were:
1986 = 14%
1990 = -4.5%
1995 = 34%

2005 = 3%

 

 

2024 in W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table

2024

» Major Panic - CRASH! «

» 4-years of falling prices, business stagnated, breadlines, soup kitchens, despair, and unemployment. «

Quoted from:
TPR (2012) - W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table 1784 - 2121 | Extended and Adjusted.

S&P 500 │ 2023 Still An Inside Year

 S&P500 (weekly candles)

The 2023 yearly target remains above the January 2022 high at 4,817. Price currently above Level 2 and above the July 2023 third quarter's high. 2023 is still an Inside Year, inside of the 2022 price range. The 2023 fourth quarter is an Outside Quarter. Eight trading days left before the year closes for another 120 to 140 points up into the Level 3 price target at 4,857 or even 5,000. From there a retracement down to around 4,587 - 4,440. The seasonal chart points to the 2023 high around Dec 26 (Tue). See also: The Yearly Market Maker Breakout Template.

 

S&P500 (4 hour bars)

Week Dec 18-25 sideways-to-up; Year-End-Rally;  early January 2024 high around 5,050. 

 

2016 - Presidential Cycle - Seasonal Cycle - Decennial Cycle of DJIA

Since 1834 the U.S.-stock market has been positive 10 (56%) out of 18 times in the 6th year of every decade, and the average annual gain of a 6th year was 3.74%. Since the 1970s the DJIA gained 16% to 26% during the 6th year of each decade. On average the DJIA's 6th year in the Decennial Cycle, the Annual or Seasonal Cycle and the Presidential Cycle are all positive. In the average Decennial Cycle the DJIA scores the Low of the 6th Year in late January, rises into mid July, drops into September, before surging for the rest of the year. The Presidential Cycle drops from an early January High to a late February Low, rises into early April, drops to late May, rises again into early September, drops to early October before rising into the year-end.

Credits: Seasonal Charts

Credits: www.realinvestmentadvice.com

SPX vs Annual Cycle + 5th Year of Decennial Cycle

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution

Crude Oil's 10-Year Leading Indication for DJIA | Tom McClellan

Tom McClellan - Chart In Focus (December 11, 2014)

Tom McClellan recently presented a 10-year leading indication relationship between oil prices and the stock market, as shown in the above chart. The current oil price slide says that sometime around 2024 some type of “echo” in stock prices from this year’s oil price drop can be expected. 

Stock prices echoing oil price movements with a 10-year lag has “worked” for over 100 years and there is enough evidence to accept it, even if we cannot explain it. For now, the message of this leading indication is that the oil price rally from 1998 to 2008 has yet to see the full extent of its echo during the 2009-2018 period. While the current dip in oil prices is going to be bad for stock prices about 10 years from now, it is not really a problem for stock prices in real time. 

The following chart zooms into this correlation between the S&P500 and the Crude Oil Price shifted 10 years into the future and suggests the S&P500 would continue moving down next week, then up into end of December before forming a major low around January 6. Another rally into early July - with a correction from around March 20 to April 24 - should follow.

2015 - Presidential Cycle - Seasonal Cycle - Decennial Cycle of DJIA

HERE & HERE

Lance Roberts @ www.streettalklive.com

TheChartStore.com

Since 1834 the U.S.-stock market has been positive 12 out of 18 times in the 4th year of every decade and the 5th year was by far the best year of the Decennial Pattern. The Dow Jones Industrial Average started in 1895 and since then 11 of the last 12 5th years were up and averaged a return of almost 22%. The exception from the pattern was 2005 when the DJIA lost 0.61%.

U.S. Stocks in 5th strongest and 6th longest Bull Cycle since 1900

The bull market since March 2009 is the 22nd bull cycle since 1900. End of December 2013 it was in its 57th month. This is about the length of the current sunspot cycle 24. The ongoing bull market is now also the 6th longest bull cycle and with a performance of 154% (closing December 31st) the 5th strongest since 1900. 

Presidential Cycle - Seasonal Cycle - Decennial Cycle of DJIA (2013 - 2016)

 

HERE

Decennial Pattern for 2013

Larry R. Williams: The Right Stock at the Right Time, p. 11

In his book Tides and the Affairs of Men (1939), Edgar Lawrence Smith presented the idea of a ten-year stock market cycle. Smith's theory resulted from combining two other theories, Wesley Mitchell's 40-month cycle theory and the theory of seasonality. Combining these two periods, Smith theorized that there must be a ten-year, or 120-month, cycle. 

This would result from ten 12-month, annual cycles and three 40-month cycles coinciding every 10 years. When Smith investigated prices more closely, he found that indeed there appeared to be a price pattern in the stock market that had similar characteristics every ten years. This pattern has since been called the decennial pattern.

Smith used the final digit of each year's date to identify the year in his calculations. He termed the years 1881, 1891, 1901, etc., as the first years; 1882, 1892, etc. are the second; and so forth. 

"The 10-year cycle continues to repeat over and over, but the greatest advances and declines occur at the end of the 20-year and 30-year cycles, and again at the end of the 50-year and 60-year cycles, which are stronger than the others." 

W.D. Gann (1954): Master Stock Market Course, p. 224

W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table 1784 - 2121 | Extended and Adjusted

 

Reportedly W.D. Gann constructed his legendary Financial Time Table on August 8th, 1908, without an ephemeris. Gann himself has been quoted as saying that this was his greatest market discovery. It is entirely based on the moon’s north node, which completes a full cycle every 18.6-years. This is the same cycle that Louise McWhirter used to predict the stock market as well. To mimic the Lunar Declination Cycle Gann simply alternated a sequence of +19, +18, +19, +18 etc.-years across the top to get an average length of 18.6-years. However, he finally noted that an adjustment would finally be due for Dec 25th, 1989. The above table adjusted the pattern to the ephemeris. 

 

The Financial Time Table predicts years of recessions, depressions, high stock prices, panics, low stock prices, speculative times, stock market crashes, labor strikes and so on. The legend at the right of the table reads as follows:

A - Extreme low stock prices, strikes, repression, despair, and beginning of new business generation for 18-3/5 years. 4 years of rising stock prices and improving business, markets bare of goods. Young men becoming prominent.
B - High stock prices.
C - Panic
D - Low stock prices.
E - High stock prices.
F - Panic
G - Low stock prices.
H - Very high stock prices most prosperous year, waste over extravagance, most money in circulation, much speculation.
J - Major Panic-CRASH! 4-years of falling prices, business stagnated, breadlines, soup kitchens, despair, and unemployment.
K - Same as A plus strikes, unemployment, many prominent deaths. 

W.D. Gann also observed what he came to call the “decade cycle”. In his many commodity and stock market courses, he described the decade cycle this way: By studying the yearly high and low chart and going back over a long period of time, you will see the years in which bull markets culminate and the years in which bear markets begin and end.  Each decade, or 10-year cycle, which is one-tenth of 100 years, marks an important campaign… In referring to these numbers and these years, we mean the calendar years.  

 

To understand this, study 1891 to 1900, 1901 to 1910, 1911 to 1920, 1921 to 1930 and 1931 to 1939.  The ten year cycle continues to repeat over and over, but the greatest advances and declines occur at the end of the 20-year and 30year cycles, and again at the end of the 50-year and 60-year cycles, which are stronger than the others.

Year
1. A year in which a bear market ends and a bull market begins. 1901, 1911, 1921.
2. The second year is a year of a minor bull market, or a rally in a bear market will start at some time.  1902, 1912, 1922, 1932.
3. Starts a bear year, but the rally from the second year may run to March or April before culmination, or a decline from the 2nd year may run down and make bottom in February or March, like 1933.  1903, 1913, 1923.
4. The fourth year is a bear year, but ends the bear cycle and lays the foundation for a bull market.  Compare 1904, 1914.
5. The fifth year is the year of Ascension, and a very strong year for a bull market.  See 1905, 1915, 1925, 1935.
6. The sixth year is a bull year, in which a bull campaign which started in the fourth year ends in the Fall of the year and a fast decline starts.  See 1896, 1906, 1916, 1926.
7. Seven is a bear number and the seventh year is a bear year because 84 months or 840 degrees is 7/8ths of 90.  See 1897, 1907, 1917, but note 1927 was the end of a 60 year cycle, so not much of a decline.
8. The eighth year is a bull year.  Prices start advancing in the 7th year and reach the 90th month in the 8th year.  This is very strong and a big advance usually takes place.  Review 1898, 1908, 1918, 1928.  (2008 did not follow this pattern, which is where a little real estate cycle knowledge was helpful in this instance.)
9. Nine is the highest digit and the ninth year is the strongest of all for the bull markets.  Final bull campaigns culminate in this year after extreme advances and prices start to decline.  Bear markets usually start in September to November at the end of the 9th year and a sharp decline takes place.  See 1869, 1879, 1889, 1899, 1909, 1919 and 1929, the year of the greatest advances, culminating in the fall of that year, followed by a sharp decline.
10. Ten is a bear year.  A rally often runs until March and April; then a severe decline runs to November and December, when a new cycle begins and another rally starts.  See 1910, 1920, 1930.